Saturday, November 11, 2006

An Analymacation of Today's Pittsburgh Game

Analymacation (an-ah-lah-mah-kay-shun): An attempt at analyzing an upcoming game, most often using some sort of numbers.

Today's Pittsburgh-Carolina game is a matchup between the 7-4-2 Penguins and the 8-6-3 Hurricanes, who are coming off a 5-0 win over Washington.

There are many sublevels to the game: Letowski v. Armstrong, Staal v. Staal. But the biggest, important-est, most-talked-about-est (at least on this blog) matchup of the night is Cole v. Orpik!

Perhaps you were watching the Duke-Carolina game that was on that night (Carolina won, by the way). Somehow you missed all the coverage after the game. You experienced head trauma and can't remember what happened. That's okay. I'll recap it for you.
The day of March 4, 2006 the Canes were playing in Pittsburgh. Erik Cole had already had two goals that night, Canes were up 6-4 (they won 7-5). Cole goes in along the boards, back fully turned to Orpik, and Orpik viciously rams Cole's head into the boards. (For video click here.) Cole is out for the rest of the season and all but 2 playoff games with a fractured vertebra in his neck. Orpik was suspended by the league for three games.

Now that you are reminded of the facts, you may be asking "Well, I wonder what will happen when they play against each other?" Here at The Life and Times of a Caniac, I have taken the liberty of using a mathmatical formula (*cough* random number generator *cough*) to tell you the probability of certain things happening.
Note: Percentages will add up to be over 100, as more than one thing happens in a game. (If only one thing happened it would be really, really boring).

90% - Cole is a physical force on the ice, getting several hard hits on Orpik.

This is almost a given. Orpik better watch out if Cole is on the ice at the same time as he is.

75% - Cole gets 3+ points and is an offensive nightmare for Pittsburgh.

Yes, three points can be a lot - but then, this is a guy who is coming off a hat trick in the game before. And, if Cole is on a roll like he was - he's hard to stop.

40% - Someone else on the Canes beats up Orpik.

I can see it. I think the retribution will be left to Cole, but ya never know what might happen on the ice.

20% - An actual fight breaking out between Cole and Orpik.

Cole isn't really much of a fighter, but I could see him make an exception.

5% - Cole [legally] rams Orpik so hard into the boards that the glass shatters into the first row of spectators.

That would be... interesting. And totally awesome.

0.00000000001% - Nothing happens.

Oh, you know somethin' gonna go down.

Puck drops at 7. The game is sure to be a good one, but you'd have to grab tickets to see it - it's not on TV. (Which I do not understand. Even without the Matchup of the Year, Pittsburgh has an offensive force in Crosby & Malkin which always makes a game interesting.)
I can't wait.

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